[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 23.6N 40.7W OR ABOUT 1490
MILES...2400 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AT 02/1500 UTC. ZETA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB.  THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
PROBABLY DISSIPATE ZETA WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ZETA'S CENTER WAS
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A BURST OF CONVECTION AROUND ITS
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
23.5N-25N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N14W 4N30W 2N40W 2.5N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING A SQUALL LINE ALONG
27N-90W 30N-86.5W 31N-85W...AFFECTING NW FLORIDA AND THE NE
CORNER OF THE GULF. 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES
MOST OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GEORGIA N OF 31N DUE TO A
STATIONARY FRONT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W ALONG 28N
ACROSS FL AND GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AS FRONT
MOVES INTO THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
CROSSES LOUISIANA AND THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOMINATES THE REST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SEEN FROM CENTRAL GULF NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SQUALL LINE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF AROUND 20KT ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W. SE WINDS OF NEAR 15 KT DOMINATE
THE NW QUADRANT OF THE AREA. PATCHY AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  SHOWERS ARE MOST
PREVALENT JUST NORTH OF VENEZUELA...INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. SWLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERY
OF THIS UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...JAMAICA...HAITI AND E CUBA. CONTINUED MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N67W.  A
FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES OF AROUND 20 KT IN THE TROPICS FROM
10N-22N W OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W
OF 60W.  PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF 25 N AND W OF 60W. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NE WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF SE COAST CONUS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE W ATLC...JUST N OF 30N TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
TROPICAL STORM ZETA...THE 27TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
YEAR...AND THE THIRD TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OCCURRING
IN JANUARY REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N36W TO 15N50W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS ARE MAINLY WESTERLIES FROM 10N-20N...E OF 50W TO
AFRICA.

$$
GR




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