[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 24.7N 38.7W OR ABOUT 1145 MILES...
1845 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES AT 02/0300 UTC. ZETA IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY LISTED UNDER
THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
ZETA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DESPITE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING ITS CIRCULATION. THE SHEAR IS
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 38W-40W.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 3N25W 1N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 23W-35W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQ-9N BETWEEN
35W-40W...AND FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 45W-50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
15-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED THROUGHOUT THE GULF.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA...S ALABAMA...AND S
GEORGIA FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 81W-87W DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF.  BANDS OF MOISTURE ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE W GULF THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHY AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
E OF 80W.  SHOWERS ARE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
S OF 14N AND E OF 65W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W.  THIS UPPER HIGH IS
PRODUCING DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST
OF CARIBBEAN WITH THE DRIEST AIR EAST OF 75W.  EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N67W.  ANOTHER 1022
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N53W.  A FAIRLY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT S OF THESE CENTERS IS PRODUCING STRONGER
THAN USUAL TRADES IN THE TROPICS FROM 10N-22N W OF 50W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF 24N AND W OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
TROPICAL STORM ZETA...THE 27TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
YEAR...AND THE THIRD TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OCCURRING
IN JANUARY REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.  ZETA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING WHEN DIURNAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE OCCURRING.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZETA
IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WITH
ZETA IS MOSTLY OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE TROPICS ARE WESTERLIES FROM 10N-20N...E OF 50W TO AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA


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