[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 25.2N 38.6W OR ABOUT 1115 MILES...
1795 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES AT 01/1500 UTC. ZETA IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 2 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY LISTED
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT ZETA...BUT THIS
SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STORM. THE
LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE VIGOROUS...WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE. ITS AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W
5N25W 3N34W 5N49W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A WEST ATLANTIC HIGH IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STATIONARY FRONT
IS INLAND FROM S GEORGIA TO S ARKANSAS ALONG 31N82W 33N92W. NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY
IS COVERING THE GULF THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MEXICO.
THESE WINDS ARE BRINGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN N OF 25N AND E
OF 90W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
RETREAT E MON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PARTICULARLY EAST OF 80W. PATCHY AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PATCH OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE E PART OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE EASTERN SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
SOUTH OF CUBA NEAR 20N80W. THIS UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING DRY
UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF CARIBBEAN
WITH THE DRIEST AIR EAST OF 75W.  NO MAJOR CHANGE IS EXPECTED
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.  THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO
BE OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W MONDAY MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N51W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STATE...NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC N OF 25N. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...MAINLY S OF 25N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
TROPICAL STORM ZETA...THE 27TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
YEAR...AND THE THIRD TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OCCURRING
ON JANUARY REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OTHER TWO JANUARY SYSTEMS WERE HURRICANE
ALICE IN 1955 AND SUBTROPICAL STORM IN 1978. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THERE IS A WEAK AND NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF ZETA. A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N-30W 23N-37W
16N-50W TO JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
GR










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