[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 25.7N 38.5W OR ABOUT 1085
MILES...1745 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES AT 01/0900 UTC. ZETA
IS MOVING WEST AT 2 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY LISTED
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RESTRICTING THE
CONVECTION TO THE NE QUADRANT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W 6N54W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-15W...FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
20W-31W...AND FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 34W-42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 47W-52W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A WEST ATLANTIC HIGH IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STATIONARY FRONT
IS INLAND FROM S GEORGIA TO N LOUISIANA ALONG 31N82W 32N92W.  NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER... WIDESPREAD FOG
IS LOCATED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO S TEXAS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY FLOW IS BLANKETING
THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF.
EXPECT THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADES NEAR 15 KT ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHY AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
E OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH
OF CUBA NEAR 20N80W. THIS UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING DRY UPPER
LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE DRIEST AIR EAST OF 80W.  AGAIN EXPECT THE SAME WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS TO BE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.  AT THE 24 HOUR POINT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
27N65W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT...
HOWEVER...IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N47W 26N52W WHERE
BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF 28N.  A JET
STREAM IS N OF 28N WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE 55W-80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
TROPICAL STORM ZETA...THE 27TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
YEAR...REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS.  WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RESTRICTING
THE CONVECTION TO THE NE QUADRANT WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 35W-39W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...WEAK RIDGING IS OVER AND TO THE N OF ZETA N OF 20N BETWEEN
25W-40W.  WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA









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