[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS NEAR 25.6N 38.3W OR ABOUT 1080 MILES...
1740 KM ...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES AT 01/0300 UTC. ZETA IS
MOVING WEST AT 1 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY LISTED
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RESTRICTING THE
CONVECTION TO THE NE QUADRANT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N30W 4N40W 8N53W 6N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-12W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
11W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 44W-51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE W ATLANTIC HIGH IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A PATCH OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM
23N-24N BETWEEN 85W-87W.  THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS
INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S LOUISIANA ALONG 31N86W
30N94W.  NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER...
WIDESPREAD FOG IS LOCATED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY
FLOW IS BLANKETING THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED
FROM THE E PACIFIC PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE GULF.  EXPECT THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADES NEAR 15 KT ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PATCHY AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
SOUTH OF CUBA NEAR 20N80W. THIS UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING DRY
UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE DRIEST AIR EAST OF 80W.  AGAIN EXPECT THE
SAME WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS TO BE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.  AT THE 24 HOUR POINT AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N65W. THIS HIGH IS
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF
50W. ONE EXCEPTION IN THE FAIR WEATHER IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N51W 27N57W WHERE BROKEN
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF 28N.  A JET
STREAM IS N OF 28N WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE 55W-80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
TROPICAL STORM ZETA...THE 27TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
YEAR...REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS.  WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RESTRICTING
THE CONVECTION TO THE NE QUADRANT WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 35W-39W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING IS OVER AND TO THE N OF ZETA N OF 20N
BETWEEN 25W-40W.   WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA








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