[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 26W TO 2S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 130 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22.5W-25W. A LINE OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION EXTENDS ALONG 2N-2.5N BETWEEN 25W-34W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 40W-46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 4S TO THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA AND E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N W OF 80W. AS OF
1500 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1004 MB
LOW IN THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W
INTO THE GULF ALONG 23N90W THEN SW TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST
SOUTH OF VERACRUZ AND THE TYPICAL STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. NLY WINDS AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 30 KT INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER VERACRUZ. A
SQUALL LINE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS OF 1700 UTC...MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A NARROW
LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. A BAND OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND NLY
WINDS OF 25-3O KT AREA OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT.  BROAD LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SE GULF EARLY TONIGHT...REACHING WESTERN
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS W AND N
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE W ATLC RESPECTIVELY. SW UPPER
FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA... PARTICULARLY EAST OF 80W
AND OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
DOTTING THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN SOME TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC. BROAD LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 30N70W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL/E ATLC N OF 17N FROM 32W-55W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 32W.  AT THE SURFACE...A GALE
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 32N-73W WITH A COLD FRONT SW TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 27N56W.  A
HURRICANE FORCE SURFACE LOW IS WELL N OF THE REGION WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N32W
EXTENDING SW AND THEN MAINLY 25N40W 20N50W 19N60W. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC SOUTH OF 31N.  A WELL DEFINED BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY EAST OF 50W. A 1021 MB HIGH
IS LOCATED WSW OF CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N25W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC.

$$
GR


WWWW
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