[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W EQ20W 1S30W 4S38W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3S-5N BETWEEN 9W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W.  A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 240 NM N OF FRONT.  SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WINDS ARE SELY 10-15 KT WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING WSW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF
26N. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND A 80 KT-100 KT WESTERLY JET LIES
N OF 26N. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE IS ALONG THE N COLOMBIA COAST.  15-20 KT TRADEWINDS
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  CLUSTERS OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-70W.
SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 80W.  SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE SEA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS ESPECIALLY S OF 13N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ALONG 32N50W 28N60W 26N70W 25N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND N OF
THE FRONT.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
22N64W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N22W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
55W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-55W.  SW FLOW IS E OF 30W
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SW AFRICA NEAR 10N1W.

$$
FORMOSA


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