[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N15W S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 21W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-20W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC INCLUDING THE SE US. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE NW N OF 25N
W OF 90W. A LOW/COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL
GULF. THERE IS RETURN SURFACE FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH.
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM OVER FLORIDA TO
TEXAS. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXIST
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...ONLY
LIGHTLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. LITTLE TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER SOUTH AMERICA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF
60W. A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N65W WITH
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH THE
UPPER AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W SW ALONG 20N47W TO THE
TROPICS NEAR 10N52W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED TO THE E
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS NEAR 25N35W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N44W
TO 23N55W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE IN PLACE S OF
25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N FROM
38W-50W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 6N25W N TO BEYOND 32N22W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N19W. WEAK JET STREAM WITH WINDS
OF 70 TO 90 KT IS ALONG THE W SIDE OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
13N39W TO A PEAK NEAR 24N27W TO OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
23N18W.

$$
WALLACE


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