[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 3W TO
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA S OF 3N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
3W-5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC INCLUDING THE SE US. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S
GEORGIA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY ALONG 28N88W TO
INLAND OVER THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W THEN S TO THE RIO GRAND.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N TO
INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM 85W-90W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ENTERING
THE GULF ON THU INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 65W
WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...ONLY WIDELY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE
OBSERVED. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO VENEZUELA AND THE ABC
ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF
60W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC JUST N OF BERMUDA TO 32N75W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER S GEORGIA. A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR
26N71W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING ALONG 24N59W TO
33N49W. REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N38W SW
TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 23N45W TO E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N58W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING SW TO 27N42W. WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR IN PLACE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION CAN
BE GENERATED. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 3N37W N TO BEYOND 32N27W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
12N56W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 3N56W. THIS IS
GENERATING OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 12N W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS VENEZUELA AND THE ABC
ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 15N E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN
THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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