[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180057 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N35W 1N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER NE BRAZIL...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1024 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N-74W IS
PRODUCING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF AS WELL AS OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. SFC WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EASTERLY NEAR 10-15 KT ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS SE LOUISIANA AND THE
NW PORTION OF THE GULF ENTERING NE MEXICO CLOSE TO BROWNSVILLE.
BROKEN CLOUDS ARE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD NW OF A
LINE FROM 30N-87W TO 22N-97W. THESE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH
MEXICO WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE ENTIRE GULF. DRY
AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF S OF 25N. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SEWARD THROUGH LATE SAT/SUN BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND WEAKENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID/UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH MEXICO ALSO COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W. SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA. EAST OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 69-70W...HISPANIOLA AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
SEEN OVER THE AREA. ONE OF THEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MOVING TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLAND AND PUERTO RICO...WHERE
MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT
ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR
THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADES ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N-74W IS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF
THE SE U.S. AND THE W ATLC WEST OF 70W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW TO
MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY EAST OF A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 31N58W 25N63.5W 21.5N70W. THIS THOUGH WILL
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FARTHER EAST...A RIDGE
FROM A HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA COVERS THE REST OF THE
CENTRAL/EAST ATLANTIC. ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW TO
MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN
27W-36W. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 22N-4O.5 W IS ENHANCING THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MAINLY WLY FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 10N-20N AND BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST
OF WESTERN AFRICA.

$$
GR



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