[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 3N15W 1N24W 1N35W TO THE
EQUATOR50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-25W AND 40W-50W. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 9W-18W FROM 2S-3N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB SFC HIGH OVER GA/FL BORDER IS SUPPLYING FAIR AND MILD
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. SFC WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EASTERLY NEAR 10-15 KT ACROSS THE AREA. BROKEN CLOUDS
ARE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD NW OF A LINE FROM
PENSACOLA TO 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE CLOUDS ARE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF
1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE TX/LA BORDER ACROSS
S TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD STRONG UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND STRETCHES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF WITH DRY AIR ALOFT S OF 25N. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSEWARD THROUGH LATE SAT/SUN BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
NOT REACH S OF 25N OR SO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF ALSO COVERS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXTENDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE DRIEST UPPER LEVEL AIR W OF 70W. THIS
STRONG UPPER HIGH IS KEEPING NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA RAIN FREE.
NEAR THE SFC...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
DRIVEN WSW BY 15-20 KT ENE TRADE WINDS. STRONGER WINDS...NEAR
GALE FORCE...ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. NO BIG CHANGES ARE
IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...TRADE WINDS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN NEAR 15-20 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS HANGING ON OVER MUCH OF
FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE SE U.S....AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...THANKS TO TWO 1026 MB HIGHS IN THE AREA. A 1022 MB LOW
IS LOCATED NEAR 30N63W WITH A SFC TROUGH DRAPED AROUND THE LOW
ALONG 31N63W 30N59W 21N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 175 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE AXIS FROM
22N-28N. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO DISSIPATE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. FARTHER EAST....A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N33W SUPPLYING SFC RIDGING AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 55W. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW
AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N42W AND 18N36W ENHANCING
BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-30N BETWEEN
33W-43W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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