[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161650
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N16W 1N30W 1N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 9W-15W...26W-29W AND 46W-51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 5S-4N
BETWEEN 9E-4W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SE MILD RETURN FLOW
FROM 15-20 KT IS COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SCATTERED
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
THE MOST ORGANIZED CLOUDS W OF 94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WESTERLY FLOW...FROM THE N PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH IN THE
EPAC...COVERS THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE DRIEST AIR S OF 25N. FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH SE WINDS AROUND THE W
ATLANTIC HIGH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF LATE
FRIDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED RAIN.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS FRONT TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR SOUTH BEFORE WEAKENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. TYPICAL
PATCHES OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN QUICKLY WESTWARD BY
MODERATE TRADES NEAR 20-25 KT. STRONGER WINDS ARE OFF THE COAST
OF COLUMBIA. A WEAK SFC TROUGH LIES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 88W FROM 15N-20N. A LINE OF BROKEN LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM OR SO ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THICKER CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL
END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR
THE CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN
MODERATE/STRONG TOMORROW AND THEN SLACKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO 1030 MB HIGHS LIE OFF THE SE U.S. COASTLINE NEAR 33N76W AND
33N71W. THESE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N55W 25N66W TO THE SE BAHAMAS.
BROKEN CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOST ORGANIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY N OF
30N. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS FLORIDA
AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS DIFFUSE AND SPREADING. THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK 1027 MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES WEST OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N61W.  FARTHER
EAST...A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N36W. GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE ARE SCATTERED LOW-MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 25W-50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MAINLY WESTERLY
FLOW NEAR 40-60 KT LIES W OF 62W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 40W-62W N OF 26N. CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
LIES ABOVE THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS NEAR 19N45W. SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
N/NW WARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. A BROAD RIDGE
LIES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC E OF 40W. A 70-90 KT WSW JET EXTENDS
FROM 12N47W TO 15N16W TO W AFRICA. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net