[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 3N14W 2N30W 1S47W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 25W-34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 1.5N40.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH THE COLD-AIR ADVECTION WEAKENING A LITTLE AND THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ON.  THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST E OF LOUISIANA AS CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AND WINDS DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAED.  UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW FLORIDA INTO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD FLATTEN AND PULL OUT TOMORROW.  A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA
THIS MORNING BUT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WERE JUST A LITTLE TOO
WARM FOR FLURRIES.   A WEAK REINFORCING TROUGH OF COOLER AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS THE W GULF..AND THIS TROUGH SHOULD STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF.. EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW TO PERHAPS INCREASE CLOUDS IN S ALABAMA/NW FLORIDA
LATE.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...NOW PAST
BERMUDA FROM NEAR 31N62W SW TO NW HAITI.. THRU JAMAICA THEN
TURNING MORE TO THE SSW INTO EXTREME SE NICARAGUA.  THICK LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ABOUT 300 NM ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT.  WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED NEAR THE FRONT BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE..
WHILE 25 KT WINDS ARE BEING FUNNELLED DOWN THE E COAST OF
HONDURAS.  FARTHER E... LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH IS FROM NW
VENEZUELA NE TO BEYOND 32N52W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA S OF 25N.   TRADES ARE FAIRLY WEAK IN THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN BUT THEY WILL RESTRENGTHEN IN A COUPLE DAYS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS.  ONLY A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
TO THE FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TOMORROW FOCUSES WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THRU JAMAICA TO 15N80W 10N82W.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1034 MB HIGH IS NEAR 33N34W BRINGING STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE
TRADES TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 60W.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE
ITCZ.  UPPER TROUGH IS ALIGNED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION..
RUNNING FROM WESTERN SAHARA NAER 26N13W 20N33W 12N46W 5N52W.
UPPER RIDGES ARE TO THE NW AND SE OF THE TROUGH PROMOTING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND S OF 25N W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ALMOST EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLC.  HIGH CLOUDS
COVER THE FAR S ATLATNIC S OF 11N BETWEEN 20W-45W WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE FAVORING ITCZ CONVECTION TODAY AND SW WINDS CARRYING
THE HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION.

$$
BLAKE


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