[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
7N11W 3N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO 2S45W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN
35W AND 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 27W AND 35W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD AIR HAS USHERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION. COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER MOST OF THE GULF EAST OF 95W. SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST NEAR 15 TO 25 KT. A 1031 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS RIGHT UP
AGAINST THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N97W. FAIR AND COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHTS SINCE 2003 OVER MUCH
OF FLORIDA. MILDER RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE
DRIEST AIR NORTH OF 26N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
IT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W
TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W
TO 18N80W TO EASTERN HONDURAS ALONG 84W...AND THEN CUTS ACROSS
HONDURAS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY TO 14N89W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 14N89W TO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE PANAMA/NICARAGUA
BORDER TO JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 20 KT
TO 25 KT ARE USHERING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN TO THE WEST/WEST-NORTHWEST BY MODERATE
TRADE WINDS EAST OF 78W. A LARGE STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH LIES FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO JUST EAST OF BERMUDA
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE TOMORROW AND EXTEND FROM 32N56W THRU THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO SE NICARAGUA. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
THANKS TO A 1031 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 33N38W. A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO 29N48W 25N54W 21N60W 20N68W 19N74W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS HIGH CENTER IS PRODUCING ABOVE
AVERAGE TRADEWINDS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST OF 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N25W TO 15N50W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. A 70 KT
TO 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM 10N31W TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO WESTERN AFRICA. CONSIDERABLE MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...EAST THE JET
STREAM. THE ITCZ IS FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE REGION.

$$
MT


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