[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N19W 2N36W S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
9W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US INTO THE W ATLC AND THE N
GULF N OF 24N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC AND
THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS PUSHING S OVER THE SE
US AND MAY CLIP THE FAR N GULF TODAY INTO FRI. A STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAINED POOLED OVER THE SW GULF S OF
23N W OF 94W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF NEAR
26N91W WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE W ATLC. THIS
IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THU AND FRI BEFORE
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF ON
FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING GIVING THE AREA AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
WINDS...AND SEAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N67W. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REMAINS
EXTENDING FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N88W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAIN POOLED S OF 18N W
OF 81W OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 83W INTO THE N
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA. VERY DRY UPPER AIR EXISTS FROM 8N-16N
BETWEEN 50W-63W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER LIES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
E OF 80W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WEAK/MODERATE E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.
WEAK FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA CONTINUING
ALONG 28N71W TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. DUE TO THE DRY UPPER
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...ONLY SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY... EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO THE S BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N71W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W NE TO
BEYOND 32N49W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N46W. THIS IS PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER AND DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 35N17W SW INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
15N33W COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 40W. A
994 MB GALE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 34N18W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING NE AND A COLD FRONT WRAPPING E OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
EXTENDING ALONG 32N15W ACROSS THE W CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N19W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N23W. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 14W-21W. A
STRONG SW JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
OVER W AFRICA. THE JETSTREAM AND THE DIFFLUENCE W OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ARE PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF JET.

$$
WALLACE



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