[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 042358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N40W 1N50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 30W-36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO W
CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 28N81W 24N82W 20N89W MOVING
E.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.
20-25 KT NW SURFACE FLOW IS BEHIND THE FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N96W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF W OF 87W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE FROM S FLORIDA TO THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF
TOMORROW EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 75W...WHILE 10-15 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE SELY FLOW E OF THE COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W.  ELSEWHERE...THE TRADES
ARE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 65W.   MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC OCEAN N
OF 13N BETWEEN 35W-75W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS TOMORROW
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N80W
TO 28N81W OVER S FLORIDA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W.  A
STRONG 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N51W.  A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 27N33W 23N38W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
26W-30W.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
36N16W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE
ATLANTIC N OF 20N. THE RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-80W WHILE THE TROUGH
IS BETWEEN 10W-50W.  FURTHER S...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA



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