[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N25W 2N36W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 4W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ACROSS E ALABAMA ALONG 30N87W S ALONG
26N89W TO 23N91W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF
THE FRONT WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO INLAND OVER THE N
GULF COAST NEAR 30N83W TO OVER SE GEORGIA AND S OF 23N TO THE N
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 88W-90W. DENSE OVERCAST
CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM FLORIDA
NEAR 30N84W TO 25N91W AND S OF 25N W OF 88W. ALONG THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THE SE GULF IS CLEAR FOR
NOW BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY
MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE SE GULF AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 15N86W N ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO AND COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR MONTSERRAT WESTWARD TO JUST S OF
JAMAICA AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION LEAVING THE AREA
MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE USHERED IN ON STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA
NEAR 23N81W N TO BEYOND 32N76W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 72W.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 42W-72W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO
THE CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS TO THE REGION NEAR 32N52W W TO 30N67W MOVING RAPIDLY SE.
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N49W TO 21N58W WITH A
SECOND EXTENDS FROM 25N43W TO 21N50W. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
A LINE FROM 24N53W TO BEYOND 32N48W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 23N48W TO 28N43W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BUT IS CONTINUED
TO BE UNDER CUT BY A WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
23N33W. THIS IS ALSO DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N BUT WITH THE
DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS CAN FORM.

$$
WALLACE




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