[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 4N18W 4N23W 1N35W 7N51W 5N56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 14W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 8W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED THE W GULF FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 86W WITH
A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W SW
TO 26N91W WHERE IT BEGINNING TO PULL N AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF N OF 22N E
OF 90W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 19N73W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 14N FROM
66W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC AND BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
ENHANCING  SOME LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W NE TO BEYOND 32N70W. DIFFLUENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NE OF A LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR
26N80W TO BEYOND 32N74W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 17N FROM 34W-53W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W SW TO 25N43W AND A LOW LEVEL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 35W FROM 20N-28N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO US E COAST AND A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FAR E ATLC. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N17W N TO BEYOND
32N20W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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