[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N22W 4N41W 6N50W 5N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 37W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 46W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF W OF 92W WITH A LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE W LOUISIANA TO A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR 27N96W CONTINUING SW TO FAR NE MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NE OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W ALONG 27N91W TO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NE ACROSS FLORIDA TO ALONG
THE E US COAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
MEXICO FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION TO OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED REMAIN OVER THE FAR SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 84W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
20N76W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 16N FROM 70W-83W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 82W RESULTING FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 24N71W WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING N BEYOND 32N72W. DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER HIGH AND
THE UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-77W
INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLC N OF 18N FROM 40W-60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N39W SW TO 26N50W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO 21N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT. STRONG BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N12W SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 18N25W
AND A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING 28W FROM 27N-30N WITH A SMALL
INDUCED UPPER HIGH IS JUST TO THE W NEAR 24N31W.

$$
WALLACE




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