[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 3N12W 5N20W 5N47W 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 41W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF W OF 88W WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER JUST OFF THE
TEXAS COAST TO A 12 MB LOW JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT AND
W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA ALONG
27N92W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND S FLORIDA TO OFF THE SE US COAST.
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE E
PACIFIC REGION TO OVER THE FAR W GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE FAR SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM
74W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN
76W-84W ENHANCED BY STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N77W
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W WITH THE AXIS FROM
THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND S FLORIDA TO OFF THE SE US COAST
BEYOND 32N78W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 20N
FROM 48W-70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
32N49W WSW ALONG 27N62W TO 28N76W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N50W TO 21N64W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA
BETWEEN 70W-80W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC REMAINS RATHER
SHOWER FREE. NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS NEAR
18N48W N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 25N45W TO BEYOND 32N40W
WITH A WEAK 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N38W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N13W SW TO 16N33W AND A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N27W.

$$
WALLACE





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