[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N11W 4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 37W
AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP UPPER LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS
DRAWING COPIOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK 1018 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ELY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW PREVAILS
UNDER STRONGER SFC RIDGE TO THE NE. FORECAST SET UP FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CALLS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE
WED NIGHT THEN STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A SECOND...STRONGER
REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NWLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR OVER THE AREA W OF 70W AND SUPPRESSING IN NOTABLE
CONVECTION. UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS
SPAWNING SHOWERS S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY MODERATE ELY FLOW OVER THE AREA
CURRENTLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...WITH FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE...AS HIGH PRES BUILD N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 29N29W WITH ASSOCIATED
1016 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N31W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW TO 20N40W. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N67W JUST E
OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SHOW
WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LOW ALONG
65W...INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE WEAK TROUGH. HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDS ALONG 30N. ELY CONVERGENT FLOW S OF RIDGE IS PROMOTING
CONSIDERABLE AREA OF MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT E. A COLD FRONT N OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. MEANWHILE...QUIKSCAT
IMAGERY DENOTES BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF THE
RIDGE FROM 5N TO 15N ACROSS ATLC WATERS. THE RIDGE TO THE N WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT E...ALLOWING THE NELY FLOW TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS W OF 50W BUT PERSIST S OF THE RIDGE E OF 50W.

$$
EC


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