[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 4N37W 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 8W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 32N-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG
89W/90W FROM THE N GULF COAST TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE E US. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 90W FROM 23N-29N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N
OF 25N FROM 89W-96W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF E OF 84W.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON
WED NIGHT/THU BRINGING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NW CORNER OF
THE GULF AND MOVING EASTWARD. DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING LOW
LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS E OF 83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC DIPS S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
70W-83W BRINGING VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
GIVING THE AREA SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W ADVECTING TROPICAL
ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SAME AREA
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 64W-70W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E US OVER THE NW ATLC W OF
50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
22N72W COVERING THE SW ATLC S OF 28N FROM 65W-83W DIPPING INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N69W TO 20N72W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 64W-75W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A 1026 AND
1027 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 32N75W AND 32N62W RESPECTIVELY. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N36W TO NEAR
20N42W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W
SW ALONG 25N44W TO 22N54W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
29N38W ALONG 23N39W TO 20N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF 27N FROM
32W-38W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 20N22W TO BEYOND
32N26W WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO THE W TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL E OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N36W 26N29W TO BEYOND 32N27W.

$$
WALLACE




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