[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172249
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE
FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 4N23W 3N34W 2N46W 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23N AND 40W....DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER TRIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF. THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH
THRU CENTRAL FLORIDA AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. A LOW
LEVEL REFLECTED TROUGH IS ALONG 85W. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OVERCAST LOW MID CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE SE GULF AND
AREAS E OF 90W. AS THE RIDGE ANCHORS BETTER INTO THE AREA MUCH
BETTER CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. AHEAD AND
ELSEWHERE FORECAST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT WEAK HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA WILL BE REINFORCED LATE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS THE N AND E GULF. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE SW GULF ON FRIDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. A MASS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE COVERS AREAS N OF 15N. LOW MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE W OF  80W AND E OF 70W AFFECTING THE COASTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN ANTILLES THE CLOUD COVER SEEMS
QUITE THICK OVER PUERTO RICO HISPANIOLA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
AHEAD AND ELSEWHERE FORECAST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT HIGH PRES
N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WED AND NE OF PUERTO
RICO FRI AS STRONGER HIGH PRES RE-BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER CYCLONE N OF THE AREA HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N30W TO 20N33W TO 10N50W. A STRONG SW TO NE JET IS
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND TROUGH IS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W DIGGIN RAPIDLY ESE. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS
TILTING SE W OF 70W..A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N50W TO
26N60W AND 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EMBEDDED IN HEAVY MULTILAYRED CLOUDS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE
FRONT E OF 70W. THICK LAYRED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF
40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE CLOUDS. LOOKING
AHEAD AT FORECAST MODEL DATA...THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SURFACE HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINAS
WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N PART WITH
INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME DIFFUSE T THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME SLY OVER THE W PART FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BEHIND
THE FRONT SLIDES E.
$$
TORRES-SUAREZ


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