[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162317
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE
FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 4N23W 3N34W 2N46W 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23N AND 40W....DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER /MID TROUGH OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO CAUSE
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF RAIN OVER THE SE PORTIONS. THE TROUGH IS
MOVING E AND BETTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY MID WEEK.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 86W. THIS TROUGH IS NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT A MORE EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE FUTURE.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF 85W AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AHEAD AND ELSEWHERE FORECAST MODEL DATA
INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE
E THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN N
OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE E
GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER DRY SINKING AIR. A FEW PATCHES
OF MID/HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTIONS MOVING NE.
AHEAD AND ELSEWHERE FORECAST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT HIGH PRES
N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRES RE-BUILDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 33N27W DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 40W.
THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING W SW SO IT MAY AFFECT THE AREA IN THE
FUTURE. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES FROM S AMERICA NEAR 51W
INTO AFRICA NEAR 21N. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS  THROUGH
32N24W TO 15N33W BECOMING A TROUGH TO 11N46W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. PATCHES
OF BROKEN LW CLOUDS ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE E OF 40W. A N/S MID/UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALONG 49/50W. EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROPICAL MOSTURE IS MOVING EASTWARD IN AREA N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 80W. A SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
32N63W TO 25N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS WITHIN
300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE W OF 50W AND N OF 23N. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF 40W. LOOKING
AHEAD AT FORECAST MODEL DATA...THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND INCREASE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART SUNDAY AND MON WITH A
BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE BAHAMAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO W ATLANTIC EARLY WEDNESDAY.

$$
FERNANDO TORRES SUAREZ

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