[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N11W 4N39W EQ49W. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS NOTED E OF 15N TO AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
OFF THE NRN GULF COAST OF MEXICO WITH A REFLECTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER 97W.. A BROAD 1018 MB HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI IS AIDING THE
ELY TRADES OVER THE GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
MOVE E SAT AND SUN AND WILL STRENGTHEN SUN THROUGH TUE WITH
AN INCREASE IN E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. SWELLS FROM A DEEPENING
EAST COAST LOW WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED. A
TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EMBBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.



THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT SE FLOW BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
YUCATAN. LIGHT SHOWERS AND BROKEN CLOUD DECKS ARE EVIDENT NEAR A
WEAK TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND AS FAR S AS THE BELIZE
COAST. SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PROMOTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE NRN COAST OF PANAMA TO THE NICARAGUAN
COAST. OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE HIGH OVER MID ATLC WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH SUN. A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 30N77W WITH FRONT TRAILING SW TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY E THROUGH MON. FRONT WILL MOVE E OF AREA SUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF CAROLINA COAST. HIGH WILL DRIFT SE AND
MAINTAIN FRESH ELY WINDS OVER THE AREA MON AND TUE. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT AND
WED...WITH LARGE SWELLS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WED.
OCCLUDED LOW PRES COMPLEX SITUATED NEAR SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
27N32W WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO AROUND 15N40W. AN EARLY
MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NEAR NLY GALE FORCE WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW PRES APPROXIMATELY 240 NM TO THE W. LARGE NLY
SWELL PERSISTS IN THIS AREA AS WELL WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF
14 TO 18 FT. A LARGE FIELD OF STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS EXTEND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS FAR W AS 55W. CONVERGENT FLOW IS GENERATING
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND MULTILAYER CLOUD DECKS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE EXTENDING TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS PERSIST OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE ATLC N OF THE ITCZ. 1032 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED
NEAR 38N42W. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE OCCLUDED LOW IS
MAINTAINING FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF 14N AND W OF 40W...WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WIND PREVAILING TO THE S OF THIS AREA.

FURTHER W...COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST N OF THE
BAHAMAS...FOLLOWED BY 1024 MB HIGH PRES CELL SHIFTING E THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLC.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL VEER MORE NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY W OF 60W
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO N. MEANWHILE THIS WILL WEAKEN THE 1032 MB
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TO THE S. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
E THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COMES IN PHASE WITH THE
OCCLUDED LOW AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE.

$$
TORRES




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