[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
5N7W 5N13W 3N30W 2N45W TO THE EQUATOR AT 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN
15W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO SOUTHERN MEXICO
ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST WEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE GULF SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 89W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS MOISTURE. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...
ORIGINATING FROM A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 12N78W. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HELPING TO KEEP EASTERLY WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET EAST OF 90W.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 16N83W...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TO 29N89W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 89W AND 93W
SOUTH OF 27N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 96W/97W FROM 21N TO 31N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS WEST OF 29N94W 25N96W 20N96W.
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS
COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 81W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 16N83W-TO-NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ORIGINATES FROM 12N78W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS...WEAKENING AT THE MOMENT...ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
80W AND 85W...SOME OVER WATER AND SOME OVER LAND. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...
JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ...AND IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 80W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHOSE ENDPOINT IS
19N75W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN DRY AIR IS ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 34N63W TO 29N67W AND 25N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GOES FROM 22N70W JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO 26N60W BEYOND
33N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 27N60W
TO 22N70W TO 19N75W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 33N51W 32N55W 28N60W 26N63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 35N50W 27N60W...AND WITHIN 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 27N60W 23N70W 23N77W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN CENTRAL MOROCCO TO 25N22W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N38W TO 18N50W TO 15N60W. THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 40W IS IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N36W 22N38W 17N38W IS NEAR THIS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W.
THESE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE JUST ABOUT
BECOMING CUT OFF AS AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING BETWEEN THEM.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net