[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031750 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 5N30W 5N40W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120
NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-45W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
1N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER SWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND RUNS FROM SOUTH
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS
FROM A WEAK 1020 SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 31N80W ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 150-180 NM OF THE FRONT.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE POOLED
AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF. THIS REINFORCING HIGH
WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TO GULF
WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. AS THE STRONG SFC HIGH INVADES THE GULF...THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS A
VERY STRONG 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS CREATING
STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...MAINLY WEST OF 80W. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CARRIED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NE-E WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE THE ABC ISLANDS AND NW VENEZUELA...AS
WELL AS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA...WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N
OF 12N. STRONG ELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND BERMUDA. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF
20N W OF 60W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER...JUST E OF THE
NE FLORIDA...WHERE A SURFACE LOW/STATIONARY FRONT ARE. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 20N58W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
THIS CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A PRONOUNCED SFC
TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LOW THAT LIES ALONG 26N46W
18N52W 10N56W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 50W-56W. SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF  THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND
TROUGH...AND EXTENDS NWD ALONG 40W FROM AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED
OVER NE BRAZIL. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N25-W GIVING THE ATLC AND THE
CARIBBEAN STRONG NE-E WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA MON THROUGH WED. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN AFRICA.

$$
GR


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