[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 31/1800 UTC IS NEAR
31.9N 79.1W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 155 NM/285 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
80 NM/145 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. IT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 76W AND
81W...IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND
79W...AND JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W
NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 26N TO 29N
BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF
ERNESTO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.
THE GFS MODEL IS FORECASTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO FORM IN 24 HOURS IN A LOCATION A BIT WEST OF WHERE
THIS WAVE IS SITUATED NOW.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W MOVING WEST
10 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
16.5N. THIS LOW CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW
CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 12N15W 10N33W 9N36W 8N47W 8N51W 8N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N15W 11N23W 10N33W 8N39W
8N45W 8N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED ACROSS MEXICO...SOUTH OF 26N109W
26N103W 24N98W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH
OF 24N98W 22N93W...BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINNING
AWAY FROM HURRICANE JOHN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES FROM MEXICO TO NICARAGUA WEST OF 84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SYNOPTIC SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR WESTERN NICARAGUA/WESTERN HONDURAS/EASTERN EL SALVADOR.
PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING THE IMPACT
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH.
ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER IS RECEIVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...INCLUDING OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST TO WEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ALSO ARE SEEN FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W JUST EAST OF JAMAICA
AND 83W. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF THE 10N75W TO 10N83W ITCZ FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 77W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF T.S. ERNESTO.
A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N72W.
A RIDGE GOES FROM THIS 33N72W CENTER TO 28N77W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N17W...IN BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO 33N26W...TO A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N34W...TO A THIRD LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 29N39W...TO A FOURTH LOW CENTER NEAR 27N49W TO 30N59W...
TO A WELL-ORGANIZED AND WELL-DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
25N65W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA/WESTERN HONDURAS/EASTERN
EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS CELLS ARE FROM 20N TO 33N BETWEEN 52W AND 73W.
A LARGE SCALE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N27W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 31N45W...TO 26N60W TO 28N74W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 20W...WESTWARD
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net