[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 30.0N 80.2W AT 31/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 80 NM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS
COVER MUCH OF THE SE COAST FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE MAKING LANDFALL LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST NEAR
THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 22N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
OBSERVED WITH BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF LINE FROM 14N45W-18N48W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N27W 8N40W 8N60W ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-17N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
6N-15N FROM 30W-36W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 20N W OF 88W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER SE
ALABAMA ALONG 29N87W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N93W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N E OF 87W TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO
COVERS THE SW GULF S OF 20N W OF 90W WHILE THE UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO IN THE W ATLC IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS W OF 86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF HONDURAS TO BELIZE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE WSW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
NEAR 15N82W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
17N81W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N W OF 75W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS OVER THE AREA. THE E
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR WITH
ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
REGION AS IT IS PRODUCING BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL...
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE SE
COAST FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST NEAR 32N75W
WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NE N OF
BERMUDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE
WITH THE AXIS FROM 30N60W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N64W
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 30N58W TO 23N68W. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 58W-68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO
NEAR 55W WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 18N24W AND ANOTHER NEAR 20N45W.
AN UPPER LOW CLIPS THE AREA OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND IS
CENTERED NEAR MADEIRA ISLANDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE
AREA UNDER THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE
ATLC E OF 55W.

$$
WALLACE



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