[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS AGAIN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
AT 31/0325 UTC. ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 29.4N 80.4W AT 31/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 30 NM E OF FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAINFALL... EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS COVER MUCH OF
THE SE COAST FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO JUST N OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MOST OF THU AGAIN
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THU EVENING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 22N WITH A 10 12 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS OBSERVED WITH BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SMALL BURST OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO
THE E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 14N44W-18N46W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N29W 9N40W 8N54W9N64W
ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N E OF 35W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N FROM 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE W ATLC REGION. A DEEP LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 22N W OF 87W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A 1008
MB LOW OVER S ALABAMA ALONG 28N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N
OF 26N E OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SW MEXICO COVERS THE SW GULF S OF
22N W OF 85W WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO IN THE
W ATLC IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF RATHER CLEAR
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO WSW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N80W. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER
HAITI AND CUBA HAVE MOVED INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
FROM 72W-83W AND ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N W OF 72W ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS OVER THE
AREA. THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN
FAIRLY CLEAR WITH ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
REGION AS IT IS PRODUCING BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL...
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE SE
COAST FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO JUST N OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
NEAR 31N77W WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND NE N OF BERMUDA. ERNESTO IS MOVING AROUND THE W
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH LIES
TO THE E OF THIS RIDGE WITH THE AXIS FROM 29N57W THROUGH AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 26N62W TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO 24N66W. ISOLATED/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 59W-70W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 19N25W
AND ANOTHER NEAR 20N45W. AN UPPER LOW CLIPS THE AREA OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND IS CENTERED NEAR MADEIRA ISLANDS. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE AREA UNDER THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE E HALF OF THE ATLC E OF 55W.

$$
WALLACE


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