[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301812 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ERNESTO HAS BEEN OVER MAINLAND FLORIDA SINCE ABOUT AN HOUR
BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED IN
INTENSITY AND THEREFORE IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO IS NEAR
26.9N 80.9W OVER THE WESTERN PART OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT
30/1800 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 52 NM/95 KM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. T.D. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTH
9 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALONG
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWING THIS NORTHERLY TRACK.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
WHILE ERNESTO IS OVER LAND BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR
ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO
10 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA FROM 28N TO
30N BETWEEN 79W AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LINGERING
SHOWERS COVER FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE EAST OF 84W. SHOWERS ALSO ARE MOVING INLAND
ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W TO THE BAHAMAS AND 80W
NORTH OF 20N. ERNESTO HAS ITS OWN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ON
TOP OF IT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW CENTER IS LOSING ITS
DEFINITION AS A CLOSED CIRCULATION...OPENING INTO A TROUGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 17N.
ITS MOVEMENT AND POSITION HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN DURING THE LAST
DAY OR TWO BECAUSE IT WAS MORE THAN A BIT DIFFICULT TO TRACK IT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE ARE FOLLOWING A FEW THINGS ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT POSITION.
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 31W AND 35W IS BEING ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W MOVING WEST
10 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N.
THIS LOW CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N15W 11N23W 10N29W 10N33W 10N43W 10N48W 10N64W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W
10N26W 9N33W 8N40W 8N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ERNESTO IS INLAND NOW...AND HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS.
A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W.
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER LAND STILL...
MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS AT THIS TIME. IT IS EMBEDDED IN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPINNING
ANTICYCLONICALLY AWAY FROM HURRICANE JOHN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INTO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ARE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO WESTERN CUBA FROM YESTERDAY STILL REMAINS. IT CONTINUES FROM
WESTERN CUBA TODAY TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORES OF HONDURAS. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA EAST OF 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 27N59W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 21N58W TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N64W TO THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. A BIG AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN COVERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH
OF PANAMA AND WEST OF COLOMBIA AT 30/1200 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY IN THIS AREA SINCE THEN.
SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED AND
RE-DEVELOPED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...MOSTLY STILL IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WESTERN
PANAMA AND NEARBY CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W BEYOND 32N74W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 34N38W TO 31N47W TO 31N56W TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N59W TO A THIRD LOW CENTER NEAR 21N58W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N64W TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES OFF THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT STARTS AT
31N49W AND GOES TO 30N56W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER
TO 24N57W...CURVING TO 22N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN
48W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN
56W AND 60W...AND FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 32N30W TO 25N35W...TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 21N38W TO 17N41W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN
200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N30W 19N42W...AND WITHIN 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 17N48W 8N59W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 40W NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN OVER THE TOP OF THE 33N30W 17N41W
TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N16W IN BETWEEN CANARY ISLANDS AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WEST
OF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 26N TO 35N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W.

$$
MT


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