[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 300055
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-300430-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
854 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...HURRICANE WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS.
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION.
UPDATED WINDS.
UPDATED INLAND FLOODING.
UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
ALL HURRICANE WATCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC
COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH COAST OF
FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL
2 AM WEDNESDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8
NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI. ERNESTO
IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY INDOORS AND LIMIT TRAVEL TO ALL BUT
EMERGENCIES TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AFFECTS THE AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. PERSONS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
PROTECTIVE ACTION IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED.

A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS RAINS
FROM ERNESTO CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR
ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN
A MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS ARE OPEN.
DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN LOCKED.

IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN
EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND TOURISTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MARCO ISLAND.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS AND
HOMES UNDER REPAIR IS IN EFFECT FOR IMMOKALEE, EVERGLADES CITY,
CHOKOLOSKEE AND GOODLAND. IN-PLACE SHELTER IS RECOMMENDED FOR NAPLES,
NORTH NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND.

IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN
SUGGESTED FOR PERSONS IN MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOMES OR DWELLINGS
WITH DAMAGED ROOFS, AS WELL AS LOW-LYING AREAS. SHELTERS HAVE OPENED
AS OF 5 PM. SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
EFFECTS FROM STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. NEVERTHELESS...
A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER
ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM
TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM
WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 3 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF
BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY CAUSE
MINIMAL FLOODING OF BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING
OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY
COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING
BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR
STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A
STORM TIDE OF 14 TO 15 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE
SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM
BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD
PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY
TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE
PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE
PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

...WINDS...
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...SUSTAINED WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN AVERAGING
ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT
LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
STILL POSSIBLE AS OUTER BANDS MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. OVER WESTERN SECTIONS INCLUDING THE
SOUTHWEST GULF COAST, WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 30 TO 35 MPH LATER
TONIGHT.

OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 45 MPH MAY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM NAPLES TO FORT
LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SMALL TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS MAY BREAK OFF WITH WINDS
AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND CAUSE LOCAL
TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS
GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE
GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE
OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS,
WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 80 TO 86 PERCENT OVER MIAMI-
DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND 70 TO 80 PERCENT ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT 58 TO 65 PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES
AND MARCO ISLAND.

THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS
OF 58 MPH RANGES FROM 28 TO 35 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND 15 TO 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 7 TO 12
PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO
ISLAND.

...INLAND FLOODING...
BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST AND
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, AND THIS AREA MAY MOVE ACROSS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. RAINS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THEY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY
OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE
WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

FISHEATING CREEK IN GLADES COUNTY IS CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW
FLOOD STAGE, AND WITH THE FORECAST RAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THE CREEK MAY RISE TO FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY. THIS MAY
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE FISHEATING CREEK CAMPSITE NEAR PALMDALE.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
WEDNESDAY WHILE TAPERING OFF OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND
COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY,
SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE
SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY.

...TORNADOES...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP WITH ANY OF THE BANDS THAT
WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL BE MOST IMMINENT
OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

MOLLEDA
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