[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 292146
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-300430-

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
546 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...BANDS FROM ERNESTO MOVING ONSHORE SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS.
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION.
UPDATED WINDS.
UPDATED PROBABILITIES.
UPDATED INLAND FLOODING.
UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS.
UPDATED TORNADOES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE,
THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 2 AM
WEDNESDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3
NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF
MIAMI OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING
NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS BY 8 PM AND THE
CENTER WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE
COMPLETE, AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY INDOORS AND LIMIT TRAVEL TO
ALL BUT EMERGENCIES TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AFFECTS THE
AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. PERSONS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
PROTECTIVE ACTION IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-
LYING AREAS, MOBILE HOMES AND UNSAFE STRUCTURES. EVACUATION IS
VOLUNTARY FOR RESIDENTS IN ZONE A, AS WELL AS FOR THOSE LIVING IN
HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOMES OR IN OTHER INSECURE
CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS ARE OPEN. DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN LOCKED.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE
HOME RESIDENTS, AND FOR THOSE LIVING IN DAMAGED HOMES OR HOMES WITH
BLUE ROOFS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS ARE RECOMMENDED TO
EVACUATE.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR
ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN
A MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS ARE OPEN.
DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN LOCKED.

IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN
EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND TOURISTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MARCO ISLAND.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS AND
HOMES UNDER REPAIR IS IN EFFECT FOR IMMOKALEE, EVERGLADES CITY,
CHOKOLOSKEE AND GOODLAND. IN-PLACE SHELTER IS RECOMMENDED FOR NAPLES,
NORTH NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND.

IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN
SUGGESTED FOR PERSONS IN MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOMES OR DWELLINGS
WITH DAMAGED ROOFS, AS WELL AS LOW-LYING AREAS. SHELTERS HAVE OPENED
AS OF 5 PM. SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER
ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM
TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM
WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF
BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD
CAUSEWAYS AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2
FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY
COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING
OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY
COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING
BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR
STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER, ANY SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK BACK
TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO THESE AREAS.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A
STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE
SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM
BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD
PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY
TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE
PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE
PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

...WINDS...
RAIN BANDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST BEFORE SUNSET WITH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. THE RAIN BANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 39 MPH AND GREATER, BEGINNING OVER MIAMI-DADE
AND BROWARD COUNTIES BETWEEN 8 AND 11 PM, AND OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG TROPICAL
STORM FORCE, 50 TO 65 MPH, DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND AROUND SUNRISE OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS
EVENING, COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM, AND
GLADES COUNTY INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 50 TO 60
MPH, AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT REACH HURRICANE FORCE, WINDS AS HIGH AS 60
MPH ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE, MAINLY TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SMALL TREES WILL
LIKELY BE UPROOTED AND TREE LIMBS WILL BREAK OFF, DOWNING POWER LINES
AND CAUSING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES OVER ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.

WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL
BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS
GAS THAT CAN KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE
GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE
OF THE STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS,
WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, RANGES FROM 80 TO 86 PERCENT OVER MIAMI-
DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND 70 TO 80 PERCENT ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT 58 TO 65 PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES
AND MARCO ISLAND.

THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS
OF 58 MPH RANGES FROM 28 TO 35 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND 15 TO 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 7 TO 12
PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO
ISLAND.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY 8 PM, AND CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. DOPPLER
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE BANDS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE
EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK
MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FEET. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RIP CURRENTS
LIKELY.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND
COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY,
FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY.

...TORNADOES...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP WITH ANY OF THE BANDS THAT
WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL BE MOST IMMINENT
OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

MOLLEDA
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