[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 291840
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-292230-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER SQUALLS OF ERNESTO RAPIDLY APPROACHING MOVING THROUGH THE MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.
UPDATED EVACUATION INFORMATION.
UPDATED WINDS.
UPDATED PROBABILITIES.
UPDATED INLAND FLOODING.
UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS.
UPDATED TORNADOES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH
COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE BETWEEN CAPE SABLE AND HOMESTEAD
AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERNESTO MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN
IT MAKES LANDFALL.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPEEDS ARE FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...SIMILAR TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED WITH KATRINA AS SHE MOVED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST
AUGUST. RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WHO ARE WAITING TO THE LAST
MINUTE BEFORE PUTTING UP SHUTTERS ARE URGED TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT AS SOON
AS POSSIBLE BECAUSE ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY TO A HURRICANE,
BY THE TIME HE MAKES LANDFALL TONIGHT.

ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NO LATER THAN MID-AFTERNOON AS SOME OF
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE ARRIVING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LYING
AREAS, MOBILE HOMES AND UNSAFE STRUCTURES. EVACUATION IS VOLUNTARY
FOR RESIDENTS IN ZONE A, AS WELL AS FOR THOSE LIVING IN HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS,
PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOMES OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL BE
OPEN. DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN LOCKED.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE HOME
RESIDENTS, AND FOR THOSE LIVING IN DAMAGED HOMES OR HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS.
THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE
LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A MOBILE HOME OR
IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN. DRAWBRIDGES HAVE BEEN
LOCKED.

IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT
FOR VISITORS AND TOURISTS. A DECISION ON EVACUATIONS FOR MOBILE HOMES, HOMES
WITH BLUE ROOFS AND HOMES UNDER REPAIR WILL BE MADE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR
PERSONS IN MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOMES OR DWELLINGS WITH DAMAGED ROOFS, AS
WELL AS LOW-LYING AREAS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING AROUND 5 PM. SCHOOLS WILL BE
CLOSED WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE
BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL
PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY, WATER COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF
BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD CAUSEWAYS AND
BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH
THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING
LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, THERE IS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND
CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER,
ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO
THESE AREAS.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY
SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE
FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER
OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED
WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR
PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE
PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN FORECAST.

...WINDS...
THE EXTREME OUTER RAIN BANDS OF ERNESTO ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA. WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN EXCESS
35 MPH, AND FOWEY ROCKS LIGHTHOUSE SOUTH OF KEY BISCAYNE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 100 FEET. THESE OUTER BANDS WILL
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WILL AFFECT THE REST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REACH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 5 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES AS THE MAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE, AND
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 1 AM TONIGHT OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 50 MPH OR GREATER, WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE
FORCE, DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND AROUND
SUNRISE OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.

OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM THIS
EVENING, COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM, AND GLADES COUNTY
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE, 50 MPH OR GREATER WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE, AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH ERNESTO WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT KATRINA PRODUCED ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SUCH WINDS CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MOBILE
HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN
KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF
FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE
STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39
MPH, RANGES FROM 80 TO 90 PERCENT OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, 75 TO
80 PERCENT ELSEWHERE EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EVERGLADES CITY TO MOORE
HAVEN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT TO THE WEST OF A EVERGLADES
CITY TO MOORE HAVEN LINE, INCLUDING NAPLES.

THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH
RANGES FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, 25 TO 35 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE EAST OF A LINE FROM EVERGLADES CITY TO LABELLE TO WESTERN GLADES
COUNTY, AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY INCLUDING NAPLES. THE
CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED
WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 4 TO 7 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY 8 PM, AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVER
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL
TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A HISTORICAL STORM THAT MAY BE A GOOD
MATCH FOR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO IS HURRICANE IRENE IN 1999, A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE THAT PRODUCED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 16 INCHES AND FLOODING
THAT LASTED FOR DAYS. THE FORWARD SPEED OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
MPH AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME EXTENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING, SPREADING
NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY LATER TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES,
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.

MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PRECAUTION TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL
COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FROM MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY EAST
TO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND NORTHWARD OVER BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS THE
OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO APPROACH THE AREA. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

MOLLEDA
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