[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTBW 291525
HLSTBW
FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-292130-

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1125 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

OUTER RAINBANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS...AND 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA BAY.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
FLORIDA.


...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LEE
AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL
AND NON TIDAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE...LEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...AND
FOR ALL OF POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SARASOTA...
MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTY.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL AND NON
TIDAL AREAS OF SARASOTA...MANATEE...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

THESE WATCHES COULD BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
FOR COASTAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WINDS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH TODAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN RAIN BANDS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN STRONGER SQUALLS BY LATE MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR WINDS WILL MOVE INTO DESOTO...POLK...AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AND DROP BELOW 20 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
IN MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...THEN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 IN
CHARLOTTE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...MOST OF HIGHLANDS COUNTY...AND IN
POLK COUNTY MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 27.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE
UNTIL THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE STORM PASSES
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD INCREASE
TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...INLAND FLOODING...
OCCASIONAL RAIN SQUALLS WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
ERNESTO. HOWEVER...HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...BEACH EROSION...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
SURF AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
BECOME A THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT. ALL STORM RELATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE COURSE AND INTENSITY OF ERNESTO.
BE READY TO IMPLEMENT STORM READY PLANS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR YOUR COUNTY.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY
INTENSIFY TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE EVERGLADES. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...AND SPREAD OVER THE
INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY.

FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE
TRACK AND THUS THE THREAT FOR HIGHER WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR UPDATES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 515 PM.

$$

EO

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