[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 291454
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF
ERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET.  SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA
PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT...AND A
NEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING...IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS
NOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP
CONVECTION...AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION.    THERE IS STILL
A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO
BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE
GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.  AFTER ERNESTO MOVES
FROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT IS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

SATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY
THUS FAR FROM LAND-BASED RADARS.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
315/11.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND THEN
ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/1500Z 23.3N  79.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 24.4N  80.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 26.3N  81.2W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N  81.1W    45 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 30.9N  80.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 39.5N  79.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     03/1200Z 43.0N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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