[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 291159
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-291600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
758 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER SQUALLS OF ERNESTO MOVING THROUGH THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
EVACUATION AND SHELTER INFORMATION UPDATED FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
STORM LOCATION INFORMATION UPDATED.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH
COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST
NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE BETWEEN CAPE SABLE AND HOMESTEAD
AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERNESTO MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN
IT MAKES LANDFALL.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPEEDS ARE FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...SIMILAR TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED WITH KATRINA AS SHE MOVED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST
AUGUST. RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WHO ARE WAITING TO THE LAST
MINUTE BEFORE PUTTING UP SHUTTERS ARE URGED TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT BECAUSE
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY TO A HURRICANE, BY THE TIME HE MAKES
LANDFALL.

IN MIAMI-DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED
FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A
MOBILE HOME OR IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TODAY
FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS
OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME.

IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR MARCO
ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY, CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED AND
MOBILE HOMES AND TIDAL AREAS. A DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND
NOON.

IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR
PERSONS IN MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOMES OR DWELLINGS WITH DAMAGED ROOFS.
SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING AROUND 5 PM.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND
THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM
TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS
THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY WATER
COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND
DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD CAUSEWAYS AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A
SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING
LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, THERE IS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND
CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER,
ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO
THESE AREAS.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY
SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE
FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER
OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED
WATERS AND HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR
PROPERTY OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE
PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN FORECAST.

...WINDS...
ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS, 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO WHICH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
EXTREME SOUTH DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE BY MID MORNING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
NIGHT, REACHING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE WILL START AFFECTING EXTREME SOUTH PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT,
THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE LAKE REGION BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO WHAT KATRINA PRODUCED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST
WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED. SUCH WINDS CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO
MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN
KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF
FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE
STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39
MPH, RANGES FROM 60 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, PALM BEACH
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES, TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT OVER COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS
AROUND 5 TO 8 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME, A MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING RAINS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SPIRAL BANDS. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A HISTORICAL STORM THAT MAY BE A GOOD MATCH
FOR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO IS HURRICANE IRENE IN 1999, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
THAT PRODUCED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 16 INCHES AND FLOODING THAT
LASTED FOR DAYS. THE FORWARD SPEED OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME EXTENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON,
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 18
FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIP CURRENTS
LIKELY.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES,
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.

MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PRECAUTION TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL
COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO
MAKES LANDFALL.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON EDT.

$$

PFOST
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