[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 291039
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-291600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER SPIRAL BANDS OF ERNESTO MOVING TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM SURGE INFORMATION IS UPDATED FOR THE NEW FORECAST PATH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPDATED FOR ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES.
WIND TIMING IS UPDATED.
PRECAUTIONS ARE UPDATED.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE NORTH
COAST OF FLORIDA BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI OR ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST
NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND ERNESTO MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
COMES ASHORE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPEEDS ARE FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...SIMILAR TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED WITH KATRINA AS SHE MOVED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST
AUGUST. RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WHO ARE WAITING TO THE LAST
MINUTE BEFORE PUTTING UP SHUTTERS ARE URGED TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT BECAUSE
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POSSIBLY TO A HURRICANE, BY THE TIME HE MAKES
LANDFALL.

STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER SHOULD ALREADY BE REPLENISHED AS
WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. FINAL
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING BECAUSE OUTER SPIRAL
BANDS OF ERNESTO SHOULD BE MOVING ONSHORE THE EXTREME SOUTH PART OF THE
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE
LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A MOBILE HOME OR
IN OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 7 AM TODAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TODAY
FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS
OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR
BARRIER ISLANDS, LOW-LYING AREAS, MOBILE HOMES, AND ANYONE WHO FEELS THE URGE TO
LEAVE. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN LATER TODAY.

IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR MARCO
ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY, CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED AND
MOBILE HOMES AND TIDAL AREAS. A DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND
NOON.

EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL
PRESERVE ARE CLOSED. ALL STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND
THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. THE TIME OF THE HIGHEST STORM
TIDE, SURGE PLUS NORMAL TIDE LEVEL, WOULD BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS
THE TIME OF THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE. FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY WATER
COULD ALSO PILE UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF BISCAYNE BAY WITH A WIND
DIRECTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MAY FLOOD CAUSEWAYS AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS FOR A
SHORT TIME. A STORM TIDE OF 2 FEET OR LESS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY COAST.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND MOSTLY BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA BAY COAST AND THEREFORE CAUSING
LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. HOWEVER, ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, THERE IS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING BETWEEN CAPE ROMANO AND
CAPE SABLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR STORM TIDE OF 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER,
ANY SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO
THESE AREAS.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED. THE SURGE WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY
SHORELINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE
OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO LAKEPORT TO BUCKHEAD RIDGE AS ERNESTO MOVES
NORTH AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHERN SHORE FROM
BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE TO PORT MAYACA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON
THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WOULD PASS OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO THE LAKE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE HIGHLY TURBULENT AND CONFUSED WATERS AND
HIGH WAVES OUTSIDE LEVEE PROTECTION. PERSONS WITH TRAILERS OR PROPERTY OUTSIDE
LEVEE PROTECTION ON TORRY OR KREAMER ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN FORECAST.

...WINDS...
ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS, 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO WHICH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
EXTREME SOUTH DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE BY MID MORNING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTH MIAMI-DADE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT,
REACHING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE WILL START AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT,
THEN SPREAD ACROSS BROWARD AND EASTERN COLLIER BY 3 AM AND INTO PALM BEACH,
HENDRY, GLADES, AND THE LAKE REGION BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT KATRINA PRODUCED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LAST AUGUST
WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN COLLIER
AROUND MIDNIGHT LASTING UNTIL MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BUT SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS TO NEAR OR
HURRICANE FORCE. SUCH WINDS CAN CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED
WHICH COULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA IN
AUGUST OF LAST YEAR WHEN MANY AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WERE WITHOUT POWER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES.

GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN
KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF
FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE
STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39
MPH, RANGES FROM 60 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, PALM BEACH
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES, TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT OVER COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS
AROUND 5 TO 8 PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME, A MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING RAINS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SPIRAL BANDS. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A HISTORICAL STORM THAT MAY BE A GOOD MATCH
FOR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO IS HURRICANE IRENE IN 1999, A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
THAT PRODUCED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 16 INCHES AND FLOODING THAT
LASTED FOR DAYS. THE FORWARD SPEED OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME EXTENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER,
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO POSSIBLY 18
FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TONIGHT, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES,
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS.

MARINERS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PRECAUTION TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL
COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE ERNESTO
MAKES LANDFALL.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON EDT.

$$

PFOST

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