[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 290436
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-291100-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1235 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...HEADLINE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS/HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHWWEST
FLORIDA COAST TO BONITA BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTH FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST TO BONITA BEACH
AND CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
EXTENDED NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST TO BONITA BEACH AND CONTINUES TO
INCLUDE THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NOON TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. HOWEVER, A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND ON THIS MOTION ERNESTO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND BE NEAR THE UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 40 MPH.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE ERNESTO MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS, WIND 39 MPH OR GREATER, ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SAME TIME FRAME IN THIS CASE.
DESPITE THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND CHANCE OF ERNESTO
BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA, ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER AS WELL AS
FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR GENERATORS. A BATTERY
POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. HURRICANE SHUTTERS SHOULD BE PLACED
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS
INTO ACTION EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND LATE
TUESDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH
FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED FOR ANYONE
LIVING IN A PREVIOUSLY DAMAGED HOME, HOMES WITH BLUE ROOFS, IN A TRAILER OR IN
OTHER INSECURE CIRCUMSTANCES. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 7 AM TUESDAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY
FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON BARRIER ISLANDS, IN LOW-LYING AREAS
OR HAVE DAMAGED ROOFS ARE RECOMMENDED TO EVACUATE AT THAT TIME.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, EVACUATION ORDERS FOR BARRIER ISLANDS, LOW-LYING AREAS
AND MOBILE HOMES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

IN COLLIER COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARCO
ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE, ISLES OF CAPRI, MANUFACTURED HOMES
AND LOW-LYING AREAS. DECISION ON EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE AROUND NOON TUESDAY.

EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK, BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL
PRESERVE ARE CLOSED. ALL STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT
THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND ON PAST EVENTS OF
SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND
THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI
BEACH NORTH THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD HAVE THE WIND BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND
THEREFORE WOULD CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. THE LATEST TRACK ALSO HAS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WIND FOR THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO, BUT ANY
SHIFT IN TRACK BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 4 FEET TO
THESE AREAS.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A
STORM TIDE OF 15 TO 16 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD
AFFECT THE GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY
MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE
GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD
THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE
THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE.

THESE SURGE VALUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IF ERNESTO STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN FORECAST.

...WINDS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER,
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS BEGINNING EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. STRONG TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND, 58 MPH OR GREATER, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL START
AFFECTING MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY EVENING, THEN SPREAD ACROSS BROWARD AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE AREAS
DESPITE THE LOWER INTENSITY FORECAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN SECTIONS OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS STARTING
POSSIBLY EARLY IN THE EVENING.

GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH LATEST DATA SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
AS A HURRICANE CONTINUES TO DECREASE, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE AND THEREFORE
RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT LOWER THEIR GUARD.

ALSO, STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS TO
NEAR OR HURRICANE FORCE, WHICH CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES. SOME DAMAGE TO
ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH
COULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA IN AUGUST OF
LAST YEAR WHEN MANY AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WERE WITHOUT POWER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DOWNED TREES.

GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN
KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF
FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE
STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39
MPH, RANGES FROM 65 TO 75 PERCENT OVER METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES, TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 15 TO 25. THE
CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED
WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS AROUND 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

...INLAND FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM
WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING
FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE
TRACK MAY SEE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM, EVEN A WEAK
ONE, AS IT MAKES LANDFALL, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE
AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS, DEPRESSIONS, OR JUST TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000 THAT
PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF
RAIN IN SOME PLACES.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER,
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FEET.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TUESDAY EVENING, SPREADING NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY.

ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES, TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY, LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ANY MINOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST, OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY, COULD BRING STRONGER WIND AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY
OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

SANTOS

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