[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NEAR
20.7N 76.1W AT 28/1800 UTC OR 13 NM/25 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HOLGUIN CUBA. ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S.
ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA
CAZONAL...JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO...AROUND 1200 UTC. THE CENTER
IS NOW MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA. SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER
WATER AGAIN TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN
A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W
WHICH BASICALLY MEANS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND WESTERN HAITI. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
WEST OF 60W...TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE FROM 17N TO 18N. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 33W AND 47W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CLOUDINESS AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N16W 9N35W 8N40W 7N50W 6N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 12N20W 9N30W 7N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WATCH OUT FOR T.S. ERNESTO. IT IS INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
RIGHT NOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY MOVE AWAY FROM CUBA INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND
RE-DEVELOP INTO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE HITTING SOUTH
FLORIDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
CENTER COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS FROM 16N TO
28N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA/YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 26N AND WESTWARD TO 22N95W
AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RIGHT UP AGAINST THE MEXICO COAST IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 95W AND 97W FROM 18N TO 20N.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH ARE IN
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 24N103W. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF INTERIOR MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 31N75W 28N84W 31N91W.
PART OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS OVER MAINLY THE CAROLINAS/
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA COVERS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF WATERS IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. ERNESTO IS INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA RIGHT NOW...
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND RE-DEVELOP
INTO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS WEST OF 60W...TOWARD THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 82W
IS BEING DRAWN TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. A SMALL AND WEAKENING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR 20N80W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N57W
TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 24N60W TO 23N64W 26N70W TO A SMALL-SIZED
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. THE 24N78W
LOW CENTER IS JUST NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF T.S. ERNESTO. CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO 27N
BETWEEN 70W AND 82W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES 27N FROM THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHOSE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N27W TO 27N32W...
TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N37W TO 10N45W. THE TROUGH IS
SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 40W
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN
OVER THE TOP OF THE 32N27W 10N45W TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N13W JUST WEST OF THE COAST
OF MOROCCO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA
FROM 26N TO 34N BETWEEN 6W AND 20W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net