[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 281623
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-282230-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1223 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...HEADLINE...
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO
INCLUDE THE PALM BEACH COUNTY WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST
INCLUDING THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF PALM BEACH, HENDRY, AND
GLADES COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BROWARD, MIAMI-
DADE, MAINLAND MONROE, GLADES, HENDRY AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY.

WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS
MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAS DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...HOWEVER
RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CENTER OF THE STORM EMERGES OFF
THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY,
TIMING, AND EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD
AND WATER AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR
GENERATORS. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. HURRICANE
SHUTTERS SHOULD BE PLACED THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD PUT THEIR
PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION IF THE WATCHES ARE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS TONIGHT.
PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON EXACTLY WHAT
THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, BASED ON PAST EVENTS OF SIMILAR DIRECTION,
SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE BARRIER
ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK. A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MIAMI BEACH NORTH
THROUGH THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE
WIND BLOWING OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THEREFORE WOULD
CAUSE LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES. THE LATEST TRACK ALSO HAS MOSTLY OFFSHORE WINDS
FOR THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO, BUT ANY SHIFT IN TRACK
BACK TO THE WEST COULD BRING A STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET TO THESE AREAS.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS 12.1 FEET. ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS OR A
STORM TIDE OF 16 TO 17 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE WOULD
AFFECT THE GLADES COUNTY SHORELINE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY
MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE
GLADE AS ERNESTO MOVES NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD
THE EASTERN SHORE FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF
THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE
THE EFFECT WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE.

...WINDS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER,
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WIND MAY START
AFFECTING EXTREME SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
EIGHTEEN MILE STRETCH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 1 AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
METRO MIAMI-DADE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY, THEN SPREAD NORTH
THROUGH METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER
COUNTY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND
DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED
POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. OVER
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND CAN STILL CAUSE SOME DAMAGE
TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND BLOW DOWN SMALL TREES AND BREAK OFF LIMBS
WHICH CAN CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN
KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF
FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE
STORM, THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39
MPH, RANGES FROM 60 TO 65 PERCENT OVER MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES TO 50 TO 55 PERCENT OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS 25 TO 30
PERCENT OVER MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS 7 TO 12
PERCENT OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM
WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING
FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES MAY FALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO. AREAS TO
THE WEST OF THE TRACK MAY SEE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO DOES NOT STRENGTHEN BACK TO A HURRICANE BEFORE AFFECTING
SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS AND DEPRESSIONS AFFECTING MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000 THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER,
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FEET. SURF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY WITH RIP CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COASTAL WATERS, GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MAKE PLANS
TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE
POSSIBLE STORM SURGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
WHERE ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM.

$$

MOLLEDA

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