[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 281133
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-281600-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...HEADLINE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...
GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST INCLUDING THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE,
MAINLAND MONROE, AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MORE OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. ERNESTO IS
MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS NEAR 50 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL ERNESTO MOVES ONSHORE SOUTHEAST CUBA, WITH SOME WEAKENING
EXPECTED THEREAFTER UNTIL IT REEMERGES OVER THE OPEN WATER LATE TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY, TIMING,
AND EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHECK STORES OF NON PERISHABLE FOOD
AND WATER AS WELL AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERIES AND GASOLINE SUPPLIES FOR
GENERATORS. A BATTERY POWERED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS A NECESSITY. RESIDENTS
SHOULD PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO ACTION IF THE WATCHES ARE UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS TONIGHT. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS STAGE, IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
EXACTLY WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, BASED ON PAST EVENTS OF
SIMILAR DIRECTION, SPEED AND INTENSITY, A STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BISCAYNE BAY SHORELINE OF MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK AS WELL AS THE NORTH
COAST OF FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING FLAMINGO. A STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ALONG MIAMI BEACH AND THE BROWARD
COUNTY COASTLINE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD HAVE THE WIND BLOWING
OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THEREFORE WOULD CAUSE LOWER
THAN NORMAL TIDES.

ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE CURRENT LAKE LEVEL IS ABOUT 12.1 FEET. ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS
OR A STORM TIDE OF 16 TO 17 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. THE SURGE
WOULD AFFECT THE GLADES COUNTY SHORELINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON TO BELLE GLADE AS
ERNESTO MOVES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.  THE SURGE WOULD PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SHORE
FROM BELLE GLADE NORTH TO PORT MAYACA ONCE ERNESTO IS NORTH OF THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE LAKE THE EFFECT
WOULD BE TURBULENT WITH HIGH WAVES ON TOP OF THE SURGE.

...WINDS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND, 39 MPH OR GREATER,
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WIND MAY START
AFFECTING EXTREME SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
EIGHTEEN MILE STRETCH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 1 AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
METRO MIAMI-DADE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY SPREADING NORTH THROUGH
METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE
UPROOTED WHICH WOULD CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES AND RESULT IN EXTENDED POWER
OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

GENERATORS IN USE CREATE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS, A COLORLESS ODORLESS GAS THAT CAN
KILL IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALWAYS OPERATE GENERATORS WITH PLENTY OF
FRESH AIR FLOW, NEVER IN A CLOSED GARAGE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE OF THE
STORM, THERE IS A 60 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS, WIND IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH. THE
CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH
IS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE
HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WIND, WIND IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH, IS 10 TO 15
PERCENT.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM
WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL SOUTH FLORIDA ENDS UP GETTING
FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF ERNESTO DOES NOT STRENGTHEN
BACK TO A HURRICANE BEFORE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE
RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. HISTORICALLY, MANY WEAKER TROPICAL STORMS AND
DEPRESSIONS AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF OCTOBER 2000
THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE FLOODING IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 15 INCHES
OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
THE EXACT MARINE IMPACT ACROSS THE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER,
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IN
EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 15
FEET. OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FEET. HURRICANE FORCE WIND IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING NORTH
INTO THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURF
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY WITH RIP
CURRENTS LIKELY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON
ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE POSSIBLE STORM SURGE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND NOON.

$$

PFOST
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