[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 75.0W AT 28/0600
UTC MOVING NW AT 8 KT OR ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
GUANTANAMO CUBA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ERNESTO IS ALONG THE
COAST OF HAITI AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE LAND MASS IN
WEAKENING THE STORM DECREASING BANDING AND WARMING IN THE CLOUD
TOPS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT MOVING OVER CUBA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA AS WELL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 23N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
SWIRL IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE/LOW
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST
LIMITING ACTIVITY ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC BASIN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 9N30W 8N40W 9N50W 7N60W
ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA
NEAR 10N85W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS E OF 24W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE US WITH THE UPPER
HIGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING S OVER THE
GULF AND E OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PRECEDED
ERNESTO IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS OVER THE S
GULF S OF 25N. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE MOVED INTO THE FAR E GULF AND ARE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER
CLEAR TONIGHT BUT WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS ERNESTO CROSSES CUBA AND ENTERS THE FAR SE GULF BY TUE
MORNING AS A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FOCUS OF WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 11N W OF 80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. BROAD UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE
W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE TURKS/CAICOS
NEAR 25N73W EXTENDING S TO THE COAST OF CUBA. UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA E OF THE UPPER
LOW TO NEAR 26N64W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N FROM 66W-73W INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA AND W PUERTO RICO. A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N50W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR
19N53W. A NARROWING UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N39W AS A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N34W BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE E ATLC OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING
OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 20N E OF 30W. A 1029 MB HIGH
REMAINS JUST NE OF THE AZORES WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO
25N45W AND A 1012 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF DEBBY...IS CENTERED NEAR
32N48W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE W ATLC.
THIS HAS BROKEN DOWN THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVIOUSLY DOMINATED
THE ENTIRE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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