[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 73.7W AT 27/1500 UTC
MOVING NW AT 8 KT OR ABOUT 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE
HAITI AND 210 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N AND E OF THE CENTER.  OUTER RAINBANDS
COVER HISPANIOLA WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 68W-75W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.6N 49.2W AT
27/1500 UTC MOVING N AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WELL N OF THE CENTER FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 23N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE/LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST LIMITING ACTIVITY
ALONG THE WAVE.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
CENTER FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER S MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH THE N
PORTION EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR...LIMITING ANY CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 9N30W 7N50W 7N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 22W-27W... AND FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 30W-35W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH HAS IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N95W.  THE
E GULF...E OF 88W...HAS LIGHT VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SLY FLOW.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
TENNESSEE NEAR 35N85W PRODUCING ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N
GULF ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF.  A SMALL UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N101W.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE W GULF BETWEEN 92W-97W.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA
AND THE E GULF...AND OVER THE N GULF...DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...AND A TROPICAL WAVE... ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  SEE ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 80W-84W DUE PRIMARILY TO THE ITCZ.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER BELIZE AT 18N87W MOVING
W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 11N-25N BETWEEN 80W-93W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER PUERTO RICO AT 18N67W.  THIS CIRCULATION IS
INTERACTING WITH HURRICANE ERNESTO OUTFLOW.  EXPECT ERNESTO TO
MOVE W AND BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT
39N22W.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO 30N36W 20N54W.  T.D. DEBBY
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
55W-70W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH.  AFRICAN DUST
IS OVER A VERY LARGE AREA FROM 5N-35N BETWEEN 15W-40W...AND FROM
5N-23N BETWEEN 50W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NE FLOW IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N 0F 26N AND W OF 75W.  A SMALL UPPER LOW IS NE
OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71W.  A LARGER UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N51W PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
OVER T.D. DEBBY AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 32W.

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net