[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 72.7W AT 27/0600
UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT OR ABOUT 115 NM SOUTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE
HAITI AND 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS
OF 16.5N72.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-74W.
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM AND COVERS THE AREA
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 67W-75W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED
OVER HISPANIOLA AND HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.9N 48.5W AT
27/0300 UTC MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL N
OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 22N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE/LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST LIMITING ACTIVITY
ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE
AXIS WITHIN 45/60 NM RADIUS OF 17N30.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 75 NM OF 7.5N FROM
27W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
WITH THE N PORTION EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR...LIMITING ANY
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 16N15W 17N25W THEN ALONG 12N31W 10N50W
9N62W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG 12N75W OVER COSTA RICA NEAR
10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 46W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO.
WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E
OF 84W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FOCUS OF WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING W INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 18N84W COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N W OF
77W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE S
COAST OF CUBA. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO PREVENTING OUTFLOW TO THE
W OF ERNESTO AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING ALLOWING ERNESTO TO
POSSIBLY FURTHER DEVELOP. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
THE E OF ERNESTO PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE E OF THE SYSTEM.
THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES ARE PRODUCING SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 70W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE
W ATLC W OF 75W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG W OF 78W. A
SMALL...ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS NOTED NEAR 25N70W WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN. A LARGE
UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N54W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO NEAR 16N55W. THIS IS DRAWING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S FROM A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH THAT IS N OF THE
REGION COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N FROM 56W-62W. A STRONG UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N39W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N FROM
30W-47W. THE INTERACTION OF THE E PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
THE W PORTION OF THE UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER DEBBY. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
20N E OF 30W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS JUST NE OF THE AZORES WITH RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SW NARROWING JUST N OF DEBBY INTO THE W ATLC.
MORE AFRICA DUST IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE FAR E ATLC BUT MAINLY
FROM 20N-28N E OF 35W THUS LIMITING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W.

$$
WALLACE




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