[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 71.2W AT 26/1500
UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT OR ABOUT 250 NM SOUTH SOUTH-WEST OF
SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 420 NM EAST
SOUTH-EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OUTER RAINBANDS
ARE TO THE N AND E OF THE SYSTEM.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO
THE OUTER RAINBANDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 66W-72W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY AT 26/1500 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 25.6N
47.3W AT 26/1500 UTC MOVING WEST NORTH-WEST AT 7 KT.  ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL N OF THE CENTER FROM
28N-30N BETWEEN 45W-47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS MOVING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N24W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
21W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG
86W/87W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WAVE IS BENEATH A STRONG
UPPER LOW PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE.  THE N
PORTION OF THE WAVE...N OF 13N...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR
LIMITING CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 7N50W 8N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-30W.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.  NOW... A 1016 MB
BUBBLE HIGH HAS FORMED OVER FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W.  THIS HIGH WILL
BE A FACTOR IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF T.S. ERNESTO.  THE E GULF...E
OF 88W...HAS LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS 10-15 KT SLY FLOW.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 82W-86W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
91W-97W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 36N91W PRODUCING NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE N GULF ENHANCING THE CONVECTION.  A SMALL UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S
GULF S OF 25N.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE E
GULF...AND OVER N GULF...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND A TROPICAL WAVE... ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
75W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N61W.  THIS CIRCULATION IS PUTTING
SE SHEAR OVER T.S. ERNESTO.  EXPECT ERNESTO TO MOVE W AND BE THE
PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT
39N22W.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO 32N53W.  T.S. DEBBY IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 70W-75W
DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT.  AFRICAN DUST IS OVER
A VERY LARGE AREA FROM 5N-35N BETWEEN 15W-40W...AND FROM 5N-23N
BETWEEN 50W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER HIGH IS
OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W.  A SMALL UPPER LOW IS
FURTHER E NEAR 25N70W.  A SIMILAR UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W.  SLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW OVER T.S.
DEBBY WEAKENING THE STORM.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER W AFRICA
AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 32W.

$$
FORMOSA


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