[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR XX.XN XX.XW AT 26/0600
UTC MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DUE TO UPPER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 68W FROM 13N-15N
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 64W-70W. OUTER
RAINBANDS TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM COVERS THE LESSER ANTILLES N
OF GRENADA OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING TOWARD PUERTO RICO.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN OVER PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 45.6W AT 26/0300 UTC
MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEBBY HAS BECOME
ELONGATED WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE N OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N19W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NE OF THE LOW
WITHIN WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 16N17W-20N21W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER LOW PARTIALLY MASKING
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. WAVE IS MOVED MOSTLY INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE THE N PORTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY
AIR...LIMITING CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N25W 9N37W 7N52W 9N62W ACROSS THE
N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA S OF 12N W OF 80W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AGAIN DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF
COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.
THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 80W-84W INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH
A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FOCUS OF WEATHER TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO AND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS ACROSS
THE SE CARIBBEAN. A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 73W. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE WEAK SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER HIGH
IS LOCATED JUST TO THE E OF ERNESTO PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW
MAINLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT
GENERATED OVER CUBA THIS EVENING ARE MOVING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC JUST N OF THE REGION WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA THEN
DISSIPATING ALONG 30N TO THE E COAST OF THE US. JUST TO THE
S...IS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
N/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N60W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SMALL...ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS NOTED NEAR 23N67W
WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE N
CARIBBEAN. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N53W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 21N53W. THIS IS GENERATING
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR.
THE INTERACTION OF THE E PORTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AND THE W
PORTION OF LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER RIDGING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
IS GENERATING THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER DEBBY. THERE ARE A
FEW EMBEDDED UPPER HIGH CENTERS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA W TO
40W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS JUST NE OF THE AZORES WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO N OF DEBBY INTO THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MORE AFRICA DUST IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE FAR E ATLC
COMPLIMENTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

$$
WALLACE




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