[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS DETERMINED THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AT
25/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.3N 67.6W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT.
THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 570 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 61W-68W.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 25/2100 UTC IS NEAR 24.9N
44.7W MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 1280
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC. STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE
CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N18W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH THIS MAY BE
PARTLY DIURNAL.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.  DETECTION OF THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME VAGUE SIGNS OF WESTWARD PROPAGATING
CONVECTION NOTED ON THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS ON THE TAFB WEBSITE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA...AND THE FAR NE PACIFIC FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
78W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N23W 7N50W 9N62W. A PORTION OF
THE ITCZ IS ALSO OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N75W TO 9N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN THE COAST
OF AFRICA AND 24W. VERY LITTLE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED W
OF 25W TO 60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
ALSO FOUND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 73W-80W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS MOVED W ACROSS THE GULF
THE LAST FEW DAYS IS LOCATED NEAR 23N93W IN THE WSW GULF...BUT
ONLY VAGUE MID TO UPPER CYCLONIC MOTION IS NOTED IN THIS
EVENINGS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DOT THE
AREA WITHIN 200NM OF THIS UPPER LOW. MID TO UPPER ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATES THE NORTH AND EASTERN GULF...WITH AN UPPER HIGH
OVER E TEXAS AND ANOTHER IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER E TEXAS AND THE WEAKENING
UPPER LOW IN THE WSW GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 90W-98W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE
ERN GULF FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND
87W...WHICH IS THE AREA SOUTH OF A DYING STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE SE STATES ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER HIGH PRESSURE. THE OTHER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE GULF IS A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE ERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THAT LAST FEW EVENINGS. THE
WRN PORTION OF THE ATLC HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN...WITH SFC WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND SEAS LOW. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER 15KT SE WINDS FOUND IN THE W/SW GULF AS THE HIGH
INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...A TROPICAL WAVE...AND A PORTION OF THE
ITCZ...ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.  THESE FEATURES ARE
GENERATING THE MAJORITY OF THE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF
ERN CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ROTATING
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THIS FEATURE. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND HISPANIOLA...ARE
STREAMING QUICKLY TO THE NE WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW S OF ERN CUBA AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
14N71W. ASIDE FROM ERNESTO AND THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE S/SW
PORTION OF ATLC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
SEEN NEAR A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE
GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COAST...FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 60W-80W. THIS
REGION IS ALSO DOMINATING BY AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ENE
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS NOTED NEAR
23N66W...ABOUT 350NM N OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MINIMAL. A LARGER UPPER LOW IS
SEEN SPINNING NEAR 30N52W. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTMS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 50W-58W. THE INTERACTION OF
THE E PORTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AND THE W PORTION OF LARGE SCALE
MID TO UPPER RIDGING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS GENERATING THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER DEBBY. THERE ARE A FEW EMBEDDED
UPPER HIGH CENTERS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA W TO 40W. AT THE
SURFACE A 1028MB AZORES HIGH DOMINATES MUCH OF OUR ATLANTIC
WATERS OUTSIDE OF DEBBY AND THE WEAK LOW OFF OF SENEGAL.

$$
WILLIS


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