[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 25/1500 UTC IS NEAR
13.5N 66.4W MOVING WEST 13 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 340
MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 760
MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. FOR MORE
DETAILS SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 25/1500 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N
43.3W MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 1365 MILES
...2195 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. FOR MORE
DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC.  DEBBY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AFRICAN DUST.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
42W-44W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W MOVING W
AT 5-10 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 17W-19W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
76W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N20W 8N40W 7N50W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 14W-19W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 1500 UTC...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N88W.  10-15 KT WINDS ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE GULF.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 92W-94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN
95W-97W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 89W-91W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER N FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W MOSTLY DUE TO A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER S GEORGIA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... TWO
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE GULF NEAR 25N89W...AND
21N97W.  DIFFLUENCE FROM THESE CENTERS ARE PRODUCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND A TROPICAL WAVE... ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE
MARACAIBO FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 71W-73W.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N77W WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS W TO BELIZE.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N58W.  THIS CIRCULATION IS PUTTING ABOUT
20 KT OF SE SHEAR OVER T.D. FIVE.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS
TO ALL MOVE W AND BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT
38N30W.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N50W
27N78W.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
FLORIDA E COAST FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 77W-80W DUE TO A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 32N72W 31N80W 32N84W.  AFRICAN DUST IS OVER A VERY
LARGE AREA FROM 5N-35N BETWEEN 15W-40W...AND FROM 5N-23N BETWEEN
50W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W.  A SMALL UPPER LOW IS FURTHER E
NEAR 24N65W.  A SIMILAR UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W.  SLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW OVER T.S.
DEBBY WEAKENING THE STORM.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER W AFRICA
AND THE E ATLANTIC E OF 32W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net