[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 25/0900 UTC IS NEAR
13.4N 65.7W MOVING WEST 17 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT
300 NM/560 KM SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 61.5W AND 66W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST
5 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
55W AND 60W. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO
19N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W. THIS SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AREA
NOW COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WHICH IS
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 25/0900 UTC IS NEAR
22.9N 42.3W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO
IS 1115 NM/2065 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. FOR MORE
DETAILS READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30N50W 26N50W 25N63W IS
WEST OF DEBBY. DEBBY IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 13W
AND 20W IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM GUINEA TO GUINEA-BISSAU
TO SENEGAL OF AFRICA WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
WAVE... ACCOMPANIED BY A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 17N16W. THE LOW CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 17W AND 18W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED
CELLS OF STORMS IN EXTREME WESTERN PANAMA AND COASTAL WATERS.
CELLS OF STORMS ALSO ARE IN COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS OF EASTERN
HONDURAS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. ALL THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CENTRAL AMERICA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN AS A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN FORMING ALONG IT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
NEAR THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N15W 10N20W TO 10N50W 10N54W 12N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N20W 6N30W 7N40W 9N50W 12N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN WEST TEXAS/
NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 25N106W IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TOP OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE
ILEANA POKES ITSELF INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH OF THE WEST TEXAS
TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AGAINST
THE EAST CENTRAL MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N97W NEAR TAMPICO.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WESTWARD...ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW CENTER. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT
250 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ONE CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 23N90.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND
31N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 32N80W TO
34N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
25N63W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N77W IN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS/NORTH CENTRAL
NICARAGUA. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
78W/79W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO EASTERN NICARAGUA.
ISOLATED CELLS OF STORMS IN EXTREME WESTERN PANAMA AND COASTAL
WATERS. CELLS OF STORMS ALSO ARE IN COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS OF
EASTERN HONDURAS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. ALL THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CENTRAL AMERICA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE LOW CENTER
ON ITS SOUTHEASTERLY SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS EXCEPT FOR
THE FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 31N49W TO 27N50W...TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR 25N63W...TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO A 19N77W CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA/
GEORGIA/THE CAROLINAS. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS NEAR 22.9N 42.3W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
FOUND ALSO FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N TO 32N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W.

$$
MT


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